The most important aspect of the next period is the way in which the two groups (the PSD group and the pro-Ciolos group) are trying to influence the outcome of the elections.
After PNL and USR scored some points by supporting Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos to continue as head of the Government, PSD and ALDE reversed the trend by adopting a series of tax eliminations, wages increase and other measures.
The adoption of other measures with electoral impact is almost certain, as it is the best electoral tool that they have at the moment. This “generosity” will probably only be stopped when the Parliament stops working, something expected to happen in the next 1-2 weeks (if a surprise does not occur and the parties will still be able to mobilize their MPs immediately before and during the electoral campaign that starts on November 11th).
With the alliances clearly defined (the only unknown being PMP’s attitude) the ability to mobilize each party’s electorate will be crucial. At a low vote presence (below 40%), a PSD-ALDE victory is almost certain as the PSD electorate is very loyal. If the presence increases to 50% PSD and ALDE will have problems forming a majority.
The hardest factor to predict in these elections it the evolution of USR. The new party, an alliance of civic activists, idealists, businessmen, professionals and former Cioloș government members, could surpass 10% according to the polls. It could even go higher on a wave of massive mobilization on the Internet similar to that at Iohannis’ election as it is the only party that could energize mass categories that don’t usually vote. The same thing happened at the local elections in Bucharest where their score in the polls almost doubled to about 25% in the final weeks.
USR’s rise could be the most important factor that ensures that Dacian Cioloș continues as Prime Minister (if PNL manages to remain somewhere around 30%).
Another factor is the score that ALDE (especially) and PMP will take. If ALDE fails to enter the Parliament, opposition is almost sure for PSD except for the situation where it gets at least 45% on its own.